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In the complex and capital-intensive world of drilling operations, the accuracy of time and cost forecasts can determine the success—or failure—of a project. Traditional deterministic methods have long been the industry norm, offering a single-point estimate based on a fixed set of assumptions. However, these models often fall short in capturing the inherent uncertainties of drilling. This is where probabilistic modelling steps in, offering a more dynamic, realistic, and data-driven approach.
Moving Beyond Single-Point Estimates
Unlike deterministic methods, probabilistic models use a range of input values rather than fixed numbers. This allows engineers and planners to quantify uncertainty and assess the probability of different outcomes. By incorporating historical data, risk elements, and real-time operational insights, probabilistic modelling generates a distribution of potential time and cost outcomes—offering a far more comprehensive view of what lies ahead.
The benefits of this approach are tangible:
- Increased forecasting precision: Teams can assess P10, P50, and P90 scenarios.
- Enhanced decision-making: With a clearer picture of risks and probabilities, stakeholders can make more informed, data-backed decisions.
- Improved planning confidence: Operators can better manage contingencies, budgets, and timelines.
Real-World Application of Probabilistic Modelling
A strong example of probabilistic modelling in action comes from Generteq, an engineering contractor. Seeking to improve the reliability and transparency of their well planning, Generteq transitioned from traditional deterministic methods to AGR’s iQx™ drilling engineering software.
By adopting the software’s probabilistic simulation capabilities, they were able to model a range of drilling scenarios—including high-impact, low-probability events such as stuck pipe or sidetracks—that were previously difficult to account for. This shift allowed the team to deliver more accurate and comprehensive time and cost forecasts to stakeholders.
Key outcomes included:
- Improved forecasting accuracy by incorporating risk-based events directly into time and cost models.
- Significant time savings through the ability to reuse existing well models and generate new simulations within minutes.
- Integrated project management, with seamless continuity from the planning phase to execution using the iQx™ Cost Tracker (CT™).
- Enhanced stakeholder confidence with a more realistic range of outcomes and a clearer understanding of associated risks.
Generteq’s experience highlights the tangible benefits of moving from spreadsheets to a data-driven, probabilistic well planning approach, proving vital in today’s cost- and carbon-conscious drilling environment.
Probabilistic Modelling: A Strategic Advantage for Smarter, Sustainable Drilling
As the industry faces increasing pressure to operate efficiently and reduce environmental impact, tools like iQx™ enable a shift toward smarter, more sustainable decision-making. By adopting probabilistic modelling early in the well design phase, operators can de-risk projects, allocate resources more effectively, and avoid the costly surprises that often accompany drilling campaigns.
In a time when every rig day counts, probabilistic modelling is not just a technical upgrade—it’s a strategic advantage.