There is some confusion as to what the difference is between probabilistic and deterministic planning.
The normal deterministic approach allows for only one course of events. This approach makes it very hard to address all of the possibilities that may arise during an operation.
Using probabilistic planning based on a simple spreadsheet offers benefits of ranges for time and cost, it is, however, difficult to enter information on the different paths.
By applying AGR’s P1™ software, the drilling teams are able to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the time-cost risk spread in well projects.
– What is the likelihood of overrunning the budget?
– What is the level of exposure associated with any overrun that may occur?
– Where do the individual risks lie?